The News Issue Week Day

RICH AMERICA, POOR AMERICA The split nature of today's economy has been great for stock like Coach, tough for ones like Wal-Mart. Why that won't change much, even as the Democrats gain clout in Washington. he New IBM

Big Blue's shareholders have been blue for the past few years. But the tech giant has a new strategy, focused on software. Best of all, it's working.

Randall Forsyth The buck may be real loser in Iraq ...

Review&Preview A vote keeps ASMI intact. Going more nuclear ...

Storming Ahead, After run-up, a few insurers look good ...and Direct TV

Smooth Style Polo stock will stay in fashion ...

Follow the Leaders Copying smart stockpickers is one way to build a best-ideas portfolio, and it saves on management fees. A look at Oracle, Sears, AutoZone,Wendy's and other top holding of five closely watched hedge funds ...

Coming Spinoff Duke Energy's powerful idea ...

The New Big Blue Cover Story: IBM investors may soon be smiling like CEO Palmisano, as Wall Street comes to realize that Big Blue's reinvention as a software giant gives it a steadier, more profitable business with plenty of potential for further improvement ...

Spreading Joy The four rules of good giving ...

Technology Trader Microsoft stock could be ready for takeoff, now that new version of Vista and office have launched ...

13 Great Gadgets Our pick for sleek and sophisticated gadget gifts include Sony TAV-L1 all-in-one home theater, a digital SLR camera, Logitech's Harmony 1000 universal remote ...

Tuesday

Last Woman Standing (Part 1)


The stocks of online-gambling outfits have crashed and probably won't recover, now that Congress has passed restrictions on the industry. As investors weep, the founder of the leading company may walk off with winnings of about $1.5 billion.

LAST MONDAY WAS BLACK MONDAY FOR THE internet-gambling industry on the London Stock Exchange. Industry giant PartyGaming lost about $5 billion in market value as its stock plummeted 58% to 45 from 107 pence. Falling more than 60% were the listing of Sportingbet and online-gaming cash-transfer services Neteller and FireOne Group.
The cause of the debacle was the passage on Sept. 30, during the waning hours of the U.S. congressional session, of a law to make it illegal for banks 01' credit-cm"d compa­ nies to process payments to online gambling outfits. The measure, spon­ sored by Republican Rep. James Leach of Iowa and Republican Sen.
John Kyl of Arizona, had been knock­ ing around for months, stymied by vm'i­ ous internal congressional squabbles and special interests such as the horse-betting industry's request for special exemptions. Finally, however, the ban made it, heaving across the fin­ ish line as a rider to the port security bill.
President Bush is expected to sign that into law in early November.

The immensity of the disaster to the on­ line-gambling industry is readily apparent:the majority of its business comes from U.S.
gamblers even though the companies are all domi­ ciled in offshore tax havens like Gibraltar, Antigua and Costa Rica. Some 80% of PartyGaming's revenue, for example, originates in the U.S., mostly from poker play­ ers attracted to the site's 24/7 card playing. Now, most of the online companies have announced plans to pull out of the American market voluntarily.

Some investors, of course, will try to find bargains amid the wreckage, perhaps thinking the companies could excel as vehicles for foreign betting. Fat chance. In fact, the outlook for this sector may well get worse in the months ahead, as the implications of the U.S. ban play through financial statements. One of the few investors likely to get out alive is PartyGaming's founder, a one­ time backer of the porn industry named Ruth Parasol. She and her husband had the good sense to start cashing out more than a year ago. More about them later.

If nothing else, the collapse in the gaming shares bespeaks an obtuseness on the part of investors in the stocks. First of all, it's no secret that the Justice De­ partment has long considered companies offering on­ line gaming to U.S. residents to be violating existing federal laws, such as the Wire Act and the Illegal' Gambling Business Act. Moreover, some eight states have specific bans on online gambling and most other states prohibit all forms of unlicensed gaming (need­ less to say, none of the Internet-gambling companies has such a license).

Perhaps PartyGaming (ticker: PRTY.London) posed the issue most starkly-and brazenly-in its prospectus for its initial public offering of stock in 2005: "Offshore gaming companies rely on the appar­ ent unwillingness or inability of regulators generally to bring actions against businesses with no physical presence in the relevant country."

Likewise, there have been plenty of warning signs of a coming U.S. crackdown. In July, BetOnSports chief executive David CmTuthers, a British citizen, was ar­ rested by federal agents in a Dallas-Fort Worth Airport lounge during a short layover en route thnn London to the company's headquarters in Costa Area.

The company fired him irnlllPdiat.ely for his blunder.
And Carruthers waH lIPId on a JlJ"(~viouHlY-Hl~ale, St. LouiH, sans passport and sporting an ankle hracell~L, ,grimly awaiting his next hearing date in federal court in that city_

Last month, Peter Dicks, non-executive chairman of SporLingbet, waR likewise mTested at JFK Airport when he nonchalantly showed up in the Big Apple to attend a directors meeting of a tech company. His mTest was a result of a sealed wm"rant issued by Louisiana state au­ thorities, charging him with "gambling by computer" of­ fenses. Louisiana is rumored to have dozens of other sealed WmTants covering virtually the entire executive rosters of the online-gambling industry.

In any event, Dicks was able to beat the Louisiana warrant in late September when New York Gov. George Pataki refused to order his extradition. Perhaps this was because Dicks had already resigned his position. He's now safely back in Great Britain.

The arrests followed a heady growth spurt for the industry (see "Full House: Suddenly, the Whole World is Playing Online Poker," the Ba'rron's cover story of Feb. 21, 2005). And they quickly changed the behavior of executives. A number of industry figures, including Par­ tyGaming chairman and English "suit" Michael.Jackson, disclosed that they no longer planned to travel to the United States. World Gaming Chairman James Gross­ man and Director Clare Roberts both resigned their positions with the London-listed and Antigua-based con­ cern. Both had business interests in the U.S. that re­ quired continued access to America.

Likewise, CryptoLogic, a provider of online-gam­ bling software, saw fit to announce plans to move its headquarters in January from Canada to Ireland. At the same time, its Canadian CEO announced he was step­ ping down ''for family reasons." The company said that the change of domiciles was dictated by the need to be nearer to its customers. No mention was made of the U.S. regulatory mortar fire that seemed to be landing steadily closer to the company's quarters.

Offshore Internet-gaming companies and their m~\ior operatives had long lived in a world of denial, assuming that their operations were beyond the long reach of U.S. regulators. For one thing, such industry figures as Par­ tyGaming's Parasol and BetOnSports founder Gary Ka­ plan, an ex-New York bookmaker, were assumed to be extradition-proof. After all, they were living in domi­ ciles - Gibraltar in the case of Parasol and Costa Rica for Kaplan -where online gaming is legal. Moreover, all their company computer servers, cash balances and other assets are also in offshore locations that the gov-

Complete Archive Desember 2006

The New Cisco As technologies like Internet video take off, Cisco Systems, the king of computer networking, will be among the biggest winners. Why its shares could rally another 15%.

Survivor! GOP Will Hang On Despite a profusion of predictions to the contrary, the Republicans will keep control of Congress through just barely. So says our highly reliable seat by seat analysis of local political funding.

The New IBM Big Blue's shareholders have been blue for the past few years. But the tech giant has a new strategy, focused on software. Best of all, it's working.